Tunisie Verte – No seat … yet/pas de siège … encore

dans des élections dominés par les islamistes / in elections dominated by islamists.

Celebrating Ben Ali's defeat on January 14

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Until Tuesday evening, the Green Tunesia Party (PTV) had good hopes of winning a seat in the country’s first democratic elections. Even in the town of Gassa, however, the Islamists proved too strong for secular progressive forces.

Jusqu’à mardi soir, le Parti Tunisie Verte (PTV) avait de bons espoirs de gagner un siège dans les premières élections démocratiques que le pays a jamais vu. Même dans la ville de Gassa, cependant, les islamistes étaient trop forts pour les forces progressistes laïques. Traduction en cours ….

The official results still haven’t been released, but An-Nahda most probably has won more than 40 percent of the seats. Although far bigger than expected, its victory doesn’t come as a surprise. It has successfully played the cards of nationalism, tradition, and solidarity with the poor. And it has combined superior logistics – set up with unlimited financial help from Quatar, says PTV’s president Zitouni – with dedicated members operating close to the most disadvantaged layers of society – writes Abderrazak Lejri  from the Ligue tunisienne pour la citoyenneté in a comment on the news portal Kapitalis.

Abdlkader Zitouni

Tunisie Verte won’t lose much time mourning the lost hope of influencing the constitution – which will be drafted by the newly elected 217 members’ Assembly. In Spring, local elections will be held, and thanks to the setting up of nearly 20 regional federations Tunisie Verte is, Zitouni says, sure of winning seats. And the parliamentary elections that are expected in a year, he adds, offer new opportunities for a national breakthrough.

For the immediate future, however, two big questions remain. The first: will An-Nahda, which failed to win an absolute majority, get enough support from other parties to pursue its agenda? Zitouni is not very optimistic. CPT, expected to win some 15 percent of the seats, is centre left and formally secular but, “very close to Ennahdha, and probable quite willing to compromise”. If he is right, what will happen to the liberty of expression, press freedom and to the freedom to establish political parties, and secularism? To reassure the rest of the world, the leadership has been empasising that its agenda is close to that of the German Christian-democrats, but only the future can tell us if it is.

An-Nahda leader Hamadi Jebali claiming his party's victory after Sunday's elections

The second: what can the transitional government that will be nominated by the assemblee, do about the material shortages that have triggered the Arab revolt? Since that revolt, things only have gotten worse: foreign investment dropped by 17,2 percent, unemployment has jumped from 10 percent in 2010 to 19 this year.

Even if the establishment of a democratically chosen government persuades foreign investors to come back, most of the promises made during the election campaigns were so unrealistic, many argue, that a new wave of popular protest may be inevitable.